tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 6231 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record RIC 16:52 IAH 19:10 19% 8% 0.3% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Richmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:35 → MSP 08:40DL 5344 · flown by Endeavor 2h 25m Minneapolis MSP 11:05 → IAH 13:58DL 2673 8h 23m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → RIC 12:00 → LGA 13:24DL 5064 · flown by Endeavor 3h 56m New York LGA 17:20 → IAH 20:40DL 2109 9h 40m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:00 → ATL 07:37DL 1460 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 10:02 → IAH 11:11DL 1682 6h 11m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → RIC 07:00 → ATL 08:44DL 1402 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 7h 33m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → RIC 08:15 → DEN 10:07UA 2493 3h 23m Denver DEN 13:30 → IAH 17:04UA 1829 9h 49m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23UA 224 1h 28m Chicago ORD 08:51 → IAH 11:51UA 535 6h 51m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → RIC 11:05 → ATL 12:47DL 2650 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 15:26 → IAH 16:39DL 1223 6h 34m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → RIC 06:30 → IAD 07:33UA 4503 · flown by GoJet 1h 07m Dulles IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:59UA 1524 5h 29m 89% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RIC 10:54 → PHL 12:09AA 5894 · flown by Piedmont 55m Philadelphia PHL 13:04 → IAH 15:43AA 2486 5h 49m 68% 56%
AmericanDetails → RIC 15:14 → DFW 17:30AA 1915 1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:36 → IAH 19:54AA 1392 5h 40m 70% 40%
AmericanDetails → RIC 16:30 → CLT 17:46AA 5505 · flown by PSA 55m Charlotte CLT 18:41 → IAH 20:33AA 2935 5h 03m 56% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON