tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2463 at 12:01 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2463 Southwest RIC 12:01 MCO 14:09 18% 4% 4.7% no record
B6 969 JetBlue Flight history → RIC 16:54 MCO 19:08 36% 13% 2.2% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RIC 07:55 → LGA 09:20DL 5822 · flown by Republic 2h 29m New York LGA 11:49 → MCO 14:42DL 2564 6h 47m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:03 → MSP 07:54DL 5344 · flown by Endeavor 1h 33m Minneapolis MSP 09:27 → MCO 13:40DL 1208 7h 37m 95% 77%
DeltaDetails → RIC 08:00 → ATL 09:42DL 1415 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → MCO 14:34DL 1372 6h 34m 97% 72%
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:00 → ATL 07:37DL 1460 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 09:25 → MCO 10:57DL 1658 4h 57m 95% 72%
UnitedDetails → RIC 06:36 → IAD 07:42UA 4279 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 03m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MCO 11:08UA 379 4h 32m 89% 72%
JetBlueDetails → RIC 05:49 → BOS 07:36B6 382 3h 01m Boston BOS 10:37 → MCO 13:46B6 651 7h 57m 99% 72%
AmericanDetails → RIC 07:34 → PHL 08:48AA 5895 · flown by Piedmont 2h 21m Philadelphia PHL 11:09 → MCO 13:55AA 3268 6h 21m 94% 71%
UnitedDetails → RIC 08:18 → ORD 09:41UA 4452 · flown by GoJet 1h 19m Chicago ORD 11:00 → MCO 15:03UA 2008 6h 45m 93% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → RIC 18:30 → EWR 20:00UA 3476 · flown by Republic 56m Newark EWR 20:56 → MCO 23:58UA 1190 5h 28m 66% 44%
JetBlueDetails → RIC 16:48 → BOS 18:34B6 782 46m Boston BOS 19:20 → MCO 22:35B6 451 5h 47m 60% 32%
UnitedDetails → RIC 14:38 → EWR 16:08UA 3415 · flown by Republic 47m Newark EWR 16:55 → MCO 19:56UA 1900 5h 18m 30% 20%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON