Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 3783 at 08:27, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3783 Southwest	RIC 08:27	MDW 09:36	7%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Richmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RIC 06:03 → MSP 07:54DL 5344 · flown by Endeavor	3h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 11:42 → MDW 13:16DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	8h 13m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:00 → ATL 07:37DL 1460	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → MDW 10:42DL 2417	5h 42m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	RIC 11:05 → ATL 12:47DL 2650	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 14:29 → MDW 15:30DL 1728	5h 25m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	RIC 16:25 → ATL 18:10DL 3152	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	6h 50m	97%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	RIC 18:35 → ATL 20:28DL 1214	47m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	4h 40m	72%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON