tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 604 at 06:25, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 604 American Flight history → RIC 06:25 MIA 08:52 18% 3% 1.4% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → RIC 06:30 → IAD 07:33UA 4503 · flown by GoJet 1h 12m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073 5h 05m 91% 77%
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:00 → ATL 07:37DL 1460 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332 7h 07m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → RIC 07:55 → LGA 09:20DL 5822 · flown by Republic 1h 55m New York LGA 11:15 → MIA 14:24DL 1538 6h 29m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:00 → DTW 07:55DL 5453 · flown by Endeavor 1h 27m Detroit DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468 6h 28m 89% 74%
AmericanDetails → RIC 06:26 → PHL 07:40AA 5973 · flown by Piedmont 3h 52m Philadelphia PHL 11:32 → MIA 14:29AA 1989 8h 03m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → RIC 08:00 → ATL 09:42DL 1415 3h 53m Atlanta ATL 13:35 → MIA 15:43DL 1323 7h 43m 98% 71%
AmericanDetails → RIC 06:30 → CLT 07:54AA 1063 1h 17m Charlotte CLT 09:11 → MIA 11:19AA 3184 4h 49m 95% 71%
DeltaDetails → RIC 07:00 → JFK 08:30DL 4660 · flown by Endeavor 2h 38m New York JFK 11:08 → MIA 14:22DL 1514 7h 22m 95% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RIC 19:21 → CLT 20:47AA 1909 57m Charlotte CLT 21:44 → MIA 23:43AA 3068 4h 22m 71% 48%
AmericanDetails → RIC 17:34 → PHL 18:54AA 5895 · flown by Piedmont 59m Philadelphia PHL 19:53 → MIA 23:03AA 2132 5h 29m 66% 47%
AmericanDetails → RIC 16:30 → CLT 17:46AA 5505 · flown by PSA 49m Charlotte CLT 18:35 → MIA 20:43AA 400 4h 13m 56% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON