Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 5344 at 06:03, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5344 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	RIC 06:03	MSP 07:54	10%	4%	0.8%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Richmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RIC 07:10 → BOS 09:01DL 5697 · flown by Republic	2h 51m Boston	BOS 11:52 → MSP 14:04DL 1103	7h 54m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	RIC 07:03 → JFK 08:21DL 4660 · flown by Endeavor	3h 14m New York	JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414	7h 47m	98%	85%
United Details →	RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23UA 224	1h 27m Chicago	ORD 08:50 → MSP 10:36UA 2805	5h 36m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:00 → ATL 07:37DL 1460	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:31DL 2090	6h 31m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	RIC 07:00 → ATL 08:44DL 1402	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	7h 50m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	RIC 11:05 → ATL 12:47DL 2650	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:07DL 2825	6h 02m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	RIC 13:40 → BOS 15:47DL 5622 · flown by Republic	2h 08m Boston	BOS 17:55 → MSP 20:21DL 1098	7h 41m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	RIC 18:35 → ATL 20:28DL 1214	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	7h 04m	94%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON