Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 391 at 22:52, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 391 Delta Flight history →	RNO 22:52	ATL 06:16	15%	3%	0.6%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 3 h ahead of Reno). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	RNO 05:54 → SFO 07:23UA 1954	1h 32m San Francisco	SFO 08:55 → ATL 16:48UA 1896	7h 54m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	RNO 17:35 → SLC 20:07DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest	3h 28m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:35 → ATL 05:14 +1DL 912	8h 39m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	RNO 05:30 → SLC 07:52DL 1650	2h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	7h 09m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	RNO 19:02 → LAX 20:47DL 4126 · flown by SkyWest	1h 53m Los Angeles	LAX 22:40 → ATL 06:07 +1DL 899	8h 05m	96%	81%
United Details →	RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:46UA 225	1h 31m Denver	DEN 10:17 → ATL 15:23UA 2806	6h 53m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	RNO 10:33 → LAX 12:13DL 4099 · flown by SkyWest	2h 02m Los Angeles	LAX 14:15 → ATL 21:59DL 715	8h 26m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	RNO 13:04 → SLC 15:34DL 1595	2h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:55 → ATL 23:58DL 905	7h 54m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	RNO 07:00 → LAX 08:45DL 4106 · flown by SkyWest	2h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 11:00 → ATL 18:37DL 528	8h 37m	98%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON