Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Reno). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RNO 05:30 → SLC 07:52DL 1650	1h 27m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:19 → AUS 13:17DL 1006	5h 47m	97%	85%
United Details →	RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:46UA 225	56m Denver	DEN 09:42 → AUS 13:02UA 1026	5h 32m	94%	81%
Delta Details →	RNO 10:33 → LAX 12:13DL 4099 · flown by SkyWest	3h 47m Los Angeles	LAX 16:00 → AUS 20:59DL 622	8h 26m	100%	80%
United Details →	RNO 05:54 → SFO 07:23UA 1954	3h 34m San Francisco	SFO 10:57 → AUS 16:39UA 2432	8h 45m	100%	79%
United Details →	RNO 09:05 → DEN 12:22UA 347	1h 22m Denver	DEN 13:44 → AUS 16:58UA 2270	5h 53m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	RNO 07:00 → LAX 08:45DL 4106 · flown by SkyWest	2h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 11:00 → AUS 16:07DL 986	7h 07m	98%	78%
United Details →	RNO 13:41 → DEN 16:55UA 1534	3h 32m Denver	DEN 20:27 → AUS 23:44UA 1943	8h 03m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	RNO 13:04 → SLC 15:34DL 1595	2h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:45 → AUS 21:30DL 2728	6h 26m	95%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	RNO 11:03 → DFW 16:27AA 1911	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:21 → AUS 18:22AA 3722 · flown by Envoy	5h 19m	74%	52%
American Details →	RNO 14:17 → DFW 19:46AA 324	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:33 → AUS 21:37AA 2707	5h 20m	63%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON