tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 3579 at 07:53, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3579 Southwest RNO 07:53 BUR 09:31 6% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RNO 05:30 → SLC 07:52DL 1650 2h 53m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 6h 24m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:54 → SFO 07:23UA 1954 1h 22m San Francisco SFO 08:45 → BUR 10:09UA 2363 4h 15m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:46UA 225 2h 29m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 7h 18m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → RNO 13:52 → SFO 15:21UA 2279 3h 15m San Francisco SFO 18:36 → BUR 19:58UA 2001 6h 06m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → RNO 13:41 → DEN 16:55UA 1534 2h 15m Denver DEN 19:10 → BUR 20:40UA 8140 6h 59m 94% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → RNO 13:52 → SFO 15:21UA 2279 54m San Francisco SFO 16:15 → BUR 17:42UA 2764 3h 50m 71% 54%
UnitedDetails → RNO 08:10 → SFO 09:24UA 755 59m San Francisco SFO 10:23 → BUR 11:49UA 2115 3h 39m 67% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON