Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3580 at 06:18 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 3580 RNO 06:18 → DEN 09:38 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1534 RNO 13:41 → DEN 16:55 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3580 Southwest	RNO 06:18	DEN 09:38	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 225 United Flight history →	RNO 05:30	DEN 08:46	5%	2%	0.6%	93%
WN 4157 Southwest	RNO 08:23	DEN 11:48	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 347 United Flight history →	RNO 09:05	DEN 12:22	9%	3%	0.6%	90%
OO 5739 SkyWest	RNO 11:13	DEN 14:50	12%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2372 Southwest	RNO 12:48	DEN 16:08	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1534 United Flight history →	RNO 13:41	DEN 16:55	14%	5%	0.6%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON