Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3582 at 05:09 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 3582 RNO 05:09 → LAS 06:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4242 RNO 18:54 → LAS 20:30 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3582 Southwest	RNO 05:09	LAS 06:30	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1361 Southwest	RNO 06:35	LAS 07:54	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1401 Southwest	RNO 09:38	LAS 11:14	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2956 Southwest	RNO 11:33	LAS 13:14	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 409 Southwest	RNO 19:19	LAS 20:41	17%	10%	1.0%	no record
WN 3403 Southwest	RNO 17:13	LAS 18:49	19%	14%	1.7%	no record
WN 2098 Southwest	RNO 15:12	LAS 16:35	20%	9%	0.9%	no record
F9 4242 Frontier Flight history →	RNO 18:54	LAS 20:30	23%	12%	2.3%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON