Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 9–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 4106 RNO 07:00 → LAX 08:45 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 758 RNO 13:53 → LAX 15:38 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4106 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 07:00	LAX 08:45	9%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 4099 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 10:33	LAX 12:13	9%	3%	0.6%	92%
WN 1263 Southwest	RNO 08:18	LAX 09:57	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 3902 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 15:13	LAX 16:53	12%	5%	0.6%	84%
DL 4126 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 19:02	LAX 20:47	12%	6%	0.6%	84%
UA 1905 United	RNO 07:24	LAX 09:07	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 758 United	RNO 13:53	LAX 15:38	14%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON