tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Reno). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RNO 05:30 → SLC 07:52DL 1650 3h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924 7h 10m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → RNO 10:33 → LAX 12:13DL 4099 · flown by SkyWest 3h 09m Los Angeles LAX 15:22 → MSP 20:59DL 2198 8h 26m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → RNO 07:00 → LAX 08:45DL 4106 · flown by SkyWest 3h 50m Los Angeles LAX 12:35 → MSP 18:11DL 914 9h 11m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:46UA 225 54m Denver DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397 5h 10m 93% 83%
UnitedDetails → RNO 09:05 → DEN 12:22UA 347 1h 28m Denver DEN 13:50 → MSP 16:54UA 732 5h 49m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → RNO 13:41 → DEN 16:55UA 1534 3h 59m Denver DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667 8h 18m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → RNO 13:04 → SLC 15:34DL 1595 1h 51m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → MSP 20:58DL 2935 5h 54m 95% 80%
AmericanDetails → RNO 05:22 → DFW 10:41AA 1361 3h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:31 → MSP 17:07AA 2406 9h 45m 96% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON