tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1819 United RNO 14:13 ORD 20:14 28% 10% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Reno). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:46UA 225 2h 29m Denver DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865 7h 25m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → RNO 13:52 → SFO 15:21UA 2279 3h 01m San Francisco SFO 18:22 → ORD 00:25 +1UA 1958 8h 33m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → RNO 13:41 → DEN 16:55UA 1534 3h 24m Denver DEN 20:19 → ORD 23:41UA 377 8h 00m 97% 75%
AlaskaDetails → RNO 19:36 → SEA 21:29AS 599 2h 10m Seattle SEA 23:39 → ORD 05:30 +1AS 285 7h 54m 100% 74%
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:54 → SFO 07:23UA 1954 52m San Francisco SFO 08:15 → ORD 14:50UA 1568 6h 56m 91% 73%
AmericanDetails → RNO 12:58 → PHX 14:50AA 1437 3h 52m Phoenix PHX 18:42 → ORD 00:22 +1AA 2201 9h 24m 100% 72%
UnitedDetails → RNO 09:05 → DEN 12:22UA 347 2h 39m Denver DEN 15:01 → ORD 18:46UA 1023 7h 41m 99% 69%
DeltaDetails → RNO 10:33 → LAX 12:13DL 4099 · flown by SkyWest 3h 04m Los Angeles LAX 15:17 → ORD 21:13DL 1634 8h 40m 100% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON