tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 363 at 08:02, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 363 Alaska RNO 08:02 PDX 09:42 16% 4% 0.8% no record
AS 2127 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record RNO 17:35 PDX 19:09 2% 0% 3.8% 98%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RNO 05:30 → SLC 07:52DL 1650 3h 23m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 6h 40m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:46UA 225 2h 30m Denver DEN 11:16 → PDX 12:58UA 644 7h 28m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → RNO 17:35 → SLC 20:07DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest 1h 38m Salt Lake City SLC 21:45 → PDX 22:38DL 1373 5h 03m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → RNO 10:33 → LAX 12:13DL 4099 · flown by SkyWest 2h 06m Los Angeles LAX 14:19 → PDX 16:34DL 2551 6h 01m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:54 → SFO 07:23UA 1954 59m San Francisco SFO 08:22 → PDX 10:25UA 5777 · flown by SkyWest 4h 31m 95% 82%
AlaskaDetails → RNO 14:46 → SEA 16:43AS 601 3h 42m Seattle SEA 20:25 → PDX 21:22AS 2387 · flown by Horizon 6h 36m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → RNO 08:10 → SFO 09:24UA 755 3h 15m San Francisco SFO 12:39 → PDX 14:34UA 2851 6h 24m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → RNO 07:00 → LAX 08:45DL 4106 · flown by SkyWest 1h 15m Los Angeles LAX 10:00 → PDX 12:20DL 2766 5h 20m 94% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → RNO 08:10 → SFO 09:24UA 755 1h 03m San Francisco SFO 10:27 → PDX 12:17UA 2624 4h 07m 70% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON