Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2981 at 04:51 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 2981 RNO 04:51 → PHX 06:42 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1437 RNO 12:58 → PHX 14:50 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2981 Southwest	RNO 04:51	PHX 06:42	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4863 Southwest	RNO 10:18	PHX 12:13	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 1826 American	RNO 06:03	PHX 07:56	8%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 4715 Southwest	RNO 16:13	PHX 18:08	12%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 4165 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RNO 16:21	PHX 18:14	15%	5%	0.9%	68%
AA 1437 American Flight history →	RNO 12:58	PHX 14:50	21%	7%	0.7%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON