Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OO 3006 at 09:52 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31–41%.

Safest bet that day OO 3006 RNO 09:52 → SEA 11:54 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 599 RNO 19:36 → SEA 21:29 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3006 SkyWest	RNO 09:52	SEA 11:54	19%	6%	0.8%	no record
AS 601 Alaska Flight history →	RNO 14:46	SEA 16:43	31%	7%	0.8%	72%
AS 599 Alaska Flight history →	RNO 19:36	SEA 21:29	41%	10%	1.1%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON