Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1954 at 05:54 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 1954 RNO 05:54 → SFO 07:23 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 755 RNO 08:10 → SFO 09:24 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 29% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1954 United Flight history →	RNO 05:54	SFO 07:23	4%	2%	0.6%	93%
UA 2279 United Flight history →	RNO 13:52	SFO 15:21	23%	10%	0.6%	66%
UA 1219 United	RNO 18:38	SFO 19:48	27%	11%	0.6%	no record
UA 755 United Flight history →	RNO 08:10	SFO 09:24	33%	11%	0.6%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON