tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RNO 05:30 → SLC 07:52DL 1650 3h 48m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 7h 05m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:46UA 225 2h 47m Denver DEN 11:33 → SJC 13:17UA 1256 7h 47m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → RNO 15:13 → LAX 16:53DL 3902 · flown by SkyWest 3h 51m Los Angeles LAX 20:44 → SJC 22:05DL 1420 6h 52m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → RNO 10:33 → LAX 12:13DL 4099 · flown by SkyWest 3h 56m Los Angeles LAX 16:09 → SJC 17:27DL 1359 6h 54m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → RNO 13:04 → SLC 15:34DL 1595 1h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 17:31 → SJC 18:31DL 1172 5h 27m 95% 77%
UnitedDetails → RNO 13:41 → DEN 16:55UA 1534 2h 35m Denver DEN 19:30 → SJC 21:10UA 2745 7h 29m 95% 74%
AmericanDetails → RNO 12:58 → PHX 14:50AA 1437 1h 44m Phoenix PHX 16:34 → SJC 18:40AA 2094 5h 42m 93% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → RNO 14:46 → SEA 16:43AS 601 1h 01m Seattle SEA 17:44 → SJC 19:50AS 1303 5h 04m 66% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON