Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4806 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ROC 06:10	BOS 07:40	4%	2%	0.7%	93%
AA 4171 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ROC 12:00	BOS 13:26	13%	4%	0.8%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ROC 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 1200	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → BOS 12:41DL 855	6h 41m	98%	87%
American Details →	ROC 06:05 → PHL 07:32AA 5930 · flown by Piedmont	2h 58m Philadelphia	PHL 10:30 → BOS 12:03AA 1416	5h 58m	98%	87%
American Details →	ROC 06:00 → DCA 07:28AA 5351 · flown by PSA	2h 18m Washington	DCA 09:46 → BOS 11:39AA 4337 · flown by Republic	5h 39m	94%	84%
American Details →	ROC 16:52 → DCA 18:35AA 5457 · flown by PSA	2h 14m Washington	DCA 20:49 → BOS 22:39AA 4668 · flown by Republic	5h 47m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	ROC 06:00 → LGA 07:19DL 5311 · flown by Endeavor	2h 55m New York	LGA 10:14 → BOS 11:27DL 5728 · flown by Republic	5h 27m	95%	83%
United Details →	ROC 06:19 → ORD 07:20UA 2008	2h 03m Chicago	ORD 09:23 → BOS 12:55UA 1367	6h 36m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	ROC 05:30 → JFK 06:58DL 5318 · flown by Endeavor	2h 52m New York	JFK 09:50 → BOS 11:18DL 5733 · flown by Republic	5h 48m	97%	82%
United Details →	ROC 06:10 → IAD 07:31UA 4578 · flown by GoJet	1h 04m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → BOS 10:20UA 641	4h 10m	91%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON