tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 1409 at 05:56, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1409 Delta ROC 05:56 DTW 07:16 5% 3% 0.8% no record
DL 5231 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record ROC 17:48 DTW 19:15 35% 27% 5.5% 65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ROC 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 1200 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → DTW 11:40DL 8861 5h 40m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → ROC 06:26 → ORD 07:46AA 4441 · flown by Republic 2h 13m Chicago ORD 09:59 → DTW 12:29AA 3977 · flown by Envoy 6h 03m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → ROC 06:00 → DCA 07:28AA 5351 · flown by PSA 2h 36m Washington DCA 10:04 → DTW 11:55AA 5660 · flown by PSA 5h 55m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → ROC 06:00 → LGA 07:19DL 5311 · flown by Endeavor 2h 06m New York LGA 09:25 → DTW 11:24DL 1078 5h 24m 94% 83%
AmericanDetails → ROC 16:52 → DCA 18:35AA 5457 · flown by PSA 1h 39m Washington DCA 20:14 → DTW 22:06AA 4616 · flown by Republic 5h 14m 93% 83%
DeltaDetails → ROC 12:26 → ATL 14:35DL 2511 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 17:11 → DTW 19:14DL 2067 6h 48m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → ROC 06:19 → ORD 07:20UA 2008 3h 30m Chicago ORD 10:50 → DTW 13:27UA 5756 · flown by SkyWest 7h 08m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → ROC 07:15 → CLT 09:26AA 1485 3h 02m Charlotte CLT 12:28 → DTW 14:17AA 1683 7h 02m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ROC 17:53 → CLT 19:54AA 2320 52m Charlotte CLT 20:46 → DTW 22:34AA 419 4h 41m 66% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON