tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ROC 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 1200 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 6h 21m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → ROC 06:19 → ORD 07:20UA 2008 3h 31m Chicago ORD 10:51 → EWR 14:17UA 1856 7h 58m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → ROC 07:15 → CLT 09:26AA 1485 1h 22m Charlotte CLT 10:48 → EWR 12:45AA 1697 5h 30m 93% 75%
AmericanDetails → ROC 06:26 → ORD 07:46AA 4441 · flown by Republic 2h 25m Chicago ORD 10:11 → EWR 13:35AA 2416 7h 09m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → ROC 12:26 → ATL 14:35DL 2511 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 18:35 → EWR 20:54DL 2498 8h 28m 100% 70%
UnitedDetails → ROC 17:35 → ORD 18:34UA 2059 2h 56m Chicago ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209 7h 18m 92% 68%
JetBlueDetails → ROC 15:00 → MCO 17:55B6 1043 3h 10m Orlando MCO 21:05 → EWR 23:47B6 2128 8h 47m 97% 66%
DeltaDetails → ROC 17:48 → DTW 19:15DL 5231 · flown by Endeavor 2h 25m Detroit DTW 21:40 → EWR 23:25DL 2609 5h 37m 85% 65%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON