Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 4578 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ROC 06:10	IAD 07:31	9%	6%	3.0%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ROC 06:19 → ORD 07:20UA 2008	1h 23m Chicago	ORD 08:43 → IAD 11:55UA 2277	5h 36m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	ROC 12:26 → ATL 14:35DL 2511	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 18:31 → IAD 20:23DL 1309	7h 57m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	ROC 18:15 → ATL 20:35DL 2047	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	6h 26m	96%	76%
United Details →	ROC 17:35 → ORD 18:34UA 2059	3h 32m Chicago	ORD 22:06 → IAD 00:47 +1UA 1922	7h 12m	94%	72%
Delta Details →	ROC 17:48 → DTW 19:15DL 5231 · flown by Endeavor	2h 23m Detroit	DTW 21:38 → IAD 23:13DL 3988 · flown by SkyWest	5h 25m	85%	67%
American Details →	ROC 17:53 → CLT 19:54AA 2320	1h 21m Charlotte	CLT 21:15 → IAD 22:42AA 2608	4h 49m	79%	60%
Delta Details →	ROC 11:33 → JFK 12:59DL 5330 · flown by Endeavor	3h 41m New York	JFK 16:40 → IAD 18:32DL 5076 · flown by Endeavor	6h 58m	98%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON