tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 5311 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record ROC 06:00 LGA 07:19 18% 9% 3.5% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ROC 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 1200 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371 6h 42m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → ROC 06:19 → ORD 07:20UA 2008 2h 43m Chicago ORD 10:03 → LGA 13:26UA 669 7h 07m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → ROC 12:00 → BOS 13:26AA 4171 · flown by Envoy 2h 39m Boston BOS 16:05 → LGA 17:36AA 4430 · flown by Republic 5h 36m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → ROC 12:26 → ATL 14:35DL 2511 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 17:00 → LGA 19:27DL 997 7h 01m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → ROC 06:26 → ORD 07:46AA 4441 · flown by Republic 2h 27m Chicago ORD 10:13 → LGA 13:34AA 3128 7h 08m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → ROC 07:15 → CLT 09:26AA 1485 2h 26m Charlotte CLT 11:52 → LGA 13:43AA 2268 6h 28m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → ROC 17:48 → DTW 19:15DL 5231 · flown by Endeavor 2h 35m Detroit DTW 21:50 → LGA 23:40DL 2603 5h 52m 85% 70%
UnitedDetails → ROC 06:10 → IAD 07:31UA 4578 · flown by GoJet 48m Dulles IAD 08:19 → LGA 09:48UA 6116 · flown by Mesa 3h 38m 86% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON