Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1142 Southwest	ROC 12:46	MCO 15:32	17%	6%	1.4%	no record
B6 1043 JetBlue Flight history →	ROC 15:00	MCO 17:55	26%	10%	2.1%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ROC 06:19 → ORD 07:20UA 2008	3h 40m Chicago	ORD 11:00 → MCO 15:03UA 2008	8h 44m	100%	78%
American Details →	ROC 06:10 → BOS 07:40AA 4806 · flown by Republic	1h 26m Boston	BOS 09:06 → MCO 12:22AA 2720	6h 12m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	ROC 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 1200	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664	6h 00m	99%	77%
American Details →	ROC 06:05 → PHL 07:32AA 5930 · flown by Piedmont	3h 37m Philadelphia	PHL 11:09 → MCO 13:55AA 3268	7h 50m	98%	76%
American Details →	ROC 10:46 → PHL 12:10AA 6126 · flown by Piedmont	2h 01m Philadelphia	PHL 14:11 → MCO 16:54AA 2502	6h 08m	97%	74%
American Details →	ROC 06:00 → DCA 07:28AA 5351 · flown by PSA	3h 34m Washington	DCA 11:02 → MCO 13:37AA 1153	7h 37m	97%	74%
JetBlue Details →	ROC 06:53 → JFK 08:16B6 1285	3h 59m New York	JFK 12:15 → MCO 15:10B6 83	8h 17m	99%	74%
American Details →	ROC 07:15 → CLT 09:26AA 1485	3h 01m Charlotte	CLT 12:27 → MCO 14:12AA 2117	6h 57m	99%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON