Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4441 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 4441 ROC 06:26 → ORD 07:46 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 2059 ROC 17:35 → ORD 18:34 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4441 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ROC 06:26	ORD 07:46	6%	2%	0.9%	87%
UA 2008 United Flight history →	ROC 06:19	ORD 07:20	12%	4%	0.7%	75%
OO 5518 SkyWest	ROC 10:40	ORD 11:50	15%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 4104 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ROC 11:37	ORD 12:35	20%	4%	1.2%	90%worse than usual
OO 6316 SkyWest	ROC 20:30	ORD 21:29	24%	9%	1.5%	no record
UA 2059 United Flight history →	ROC 17:35	ORD 18:34	38%	10%	0.7%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON