Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1385 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 1385 RSW 06:00 → ATL 07:44 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 1668 RSW 18:18 → ATL 20:13 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1385 Delta Flight history →	RSW 06:00	ATL 07:44	8%	2%	7.6%	95%
DL 1395 Delta Flight history →	RSW 08:30	ATL 10:16	10%	3%	9.4%	91%
DL 1361 Delta Flight history →	RSW 07:15	ATL 09:00	10%	3%	9.1%	93%
DL 1089 Delta Flight history →	RSW 10:52	ATL 12:35	11%	3%	12.3%	89%
DL 1153 Delta Flight history →	RSW 14:46	ATL 16:38	16%	5%	5.1%	81%
DL 1668 Delta	RSW 18:18	ATL 20:13	20%	7%	4.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON