Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 690 at 10:32 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 690 RSW 10:32 → BOS 13:43 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2066 RSW 20:43 → BOS 23:56 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 690 Delta	RSW 10:32	BOS 13:43	12%	4%	9.1%	no record
B6 266 JetBlue Flight history →	RSW 11:02	BOS 14:19	25%	9%	8.0%	68%
B6 2066 JetBlue Flight history →	RSW 20:43	BOS 23:56	33%	15%	3.3%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON