tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via LaGuardia, leaving 14:23, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Buffalo on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 14:23 → LGA 17:17DL 379 2h 30m New York LGA 19:47 → BUF 21:11DL 5792 · flown by Republic 6h 48m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:00 → ATL 07:44DL 1385 1h 26m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384 5h 11m 93% 74%
DeltaDetails → RSW 11:49 → JFK 14:47DL 2320 2h 51m New York JFK 17:38 → BUF 19:26DL 5250 · flown by Endeavor 7h 37m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → RSW 08:30 → ATL 10:16DL 1395 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 14:10 → BUF 16:13DL 2266 7h 43m 99% 71%
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:38 → ORD 10:48UA 2347 3h 26m Chicago ORD 14:14 → BUF 16:47UA 580 8h 09m 100% 68%
AmericanDetails → RSW 08:53 → CLT 10:54AA 2241 3h 04m Charlotte CLT 13:58 → BUF 15:49AA 2442 6h 56m 94% 66%
JetBlueDetails → RSW 16:55 → JFK 19:51B6 1530 2h 38m New York JFK 22:29 → BUF 00:13 +1B6 102 7h 18m 94% 66%
JetBlueDetails → RSW 11:02 → BOS 14:19B6 266 3h 41m Boston BOS 18:00 → BUF 19:47B6 715 8h 45m 97% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON