tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, F9 2715 at 14:40, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
F9 2715 Frontier Flight history → RSW 14:40 CLE 17:40 18% 9% 7.1% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 14:32 → MSP 17:04DL 2400 2h 46m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → CLE 22:41DL 1392 8h 09m 94% 77%
DeltaDetails → RSW 07:15 → ATL 09:00DL 1361 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 11:49 → CLE 13:35DL 775 6h 20m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → RSW 08:30 → ATL 10:16DL 1395 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → CLE 15:29DL 2545 6h 59m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:38 → ORD 10:48UA 2347 3h 32m Chicago ORD 14:20 → CLE 16:54UA 1502 8h 16m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → RSW 14:46 → ATL 16:38DL 1153 1h 07m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → CLE 19:35DL 2750 4h 49m 87% 65%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281 3h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:12 → CLE 15:01AA 2336 9h 00m 99% 64%
AmericanDetails → RSW 08:53 → CLT 10:54AA 2241 3h 24m Charlotte CLT 14:18 → CLE 15:54AA 1244 7h 01m 94% 63%
UnitedDetails → RSW 12:28 → ORD 14:53UA 2494 2h 52m Chicago ORD 17:45 → CLE 20:13UA 2652 7h 45m 98% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → RSW 16:55 → JFK 19:51B6 1530 52m New York JFK 20:43 → CLE 22:31B6 2768 5h 36m 62% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON