Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 3606 at 16:53, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3606 Southwest	RSW 16:53	CMH 19:30	19%	6%	4.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	RSW 14:08 → ORD 16:13UA 2472	3h 32m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → CMH 22:24UA 3614 · flown by Republic	8h 16m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	RSW 07:15 → ATL 09:00DL 1361	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 12:06 → CMH 13:38DL 1750	6h 23m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	RSW 14:32 → MSP 17:04DL 2400	3h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → CMH 23:07DL 1356	8h 35m	96%	79%
American Details →	RSW 11:47 → DCA 14:34AA 2916	1h 20m Washington	DCA 15:54 → CMH 17:33AA 4398 · flown by Republic	5h 46m	92%	77%
Delta Details →	RSW 14:46 → ATL 16:38DL 1153	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → CMH 21:33DL 1545	6h 47m	99%	75%
United Details →	RSW 08:38 → ORD 10:48UA 2347	3h 30m Chicago	ORD 14:18 → CMH 16:53UA 1069	8h 15m	100%	74%
Delta Details →	RSW 10:52 → ATL 12:35DL 1089	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 14:21 → CMH 15:58DL 2892	5h 06m	96%	73%
American Details →	RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281	2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:11 → CMH 13:50AA 1492	7h 49m	98%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	RSW 11:55 → ORD 14:09AA 2437	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 15:16 → CMH 17:40AA 3542 · flown by Envoy	5h 45m	75%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON