tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 1630 at 11:42, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1630 Delta RSW 11:42 CVG 14:11 10% 5% 7.0% no record
DL 5475 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record RSW 15:45 CVG 18:15 33% 24% 0.0% 67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 14:46 → ATL 16:38DL 1153 3h 53m Atlanta ATL 20:31 → CVG 21:59DL 2248 7h 13m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → RSW 08:30 → ATL 10:16DL 1395 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 13:49 → CVG 15:12DL 3169 6h 42m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:00 → ATL 07:44DL 1385 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → CVG 12:38DL 3149 6h 38m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:53 → EWR 11:53UA 2477 2h 02m Newark EWR 13:55 → CVG 16:16UA 3455 · flown by Republic 7h 23m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:52 → ATL 12:35DL 1089 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008 5h 49m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:38 → ORD 10:48UA 2347 2h 11m Chicago ORD 12:59 → CVG 15:30UA 4388 · flown by GoJet 6h 52m 100% 74%
AmericanDetails → RSW 11:55 → ORD 14:09AA 2437 2h 32m Chicago ORD 16:41 → CVG 19:02AA 4507 · flown by Republic 7h 07m 93% 65%
UnitedDetails → RSW 14:08 → ORD 16:13UA 2472 1h 46m Chicago ORD 17:59 → CVG 20:21UA 1732 6h 13m 93% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON