tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 2916 at 11:47, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2916 American Flight history → RSW 11:47 DCA 14:34 13% 7% 9.9% 71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 14:32 → MSP 17:04DL 2400 3h 26m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:58DL 2961 9h 26m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → RSW 14:23 → LGA 17:17DL 379 1h 53m New York LGA 19:10 → DCA 21:01DL 5724 · flown by Republic 6h 38m 94% 77%
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:00 → ATL 07:44DL 1385 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:52DL 1798 6h 52m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → RSW 14:46 → ATL 16:38DL 1153 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 18:55 → DCA 20:47DL 325 6h 01m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281 1h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:38 → DCA 13:54AA 2399 7h 53m 95% 73%
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:38 → ORD 10:48UA 2347 3h 12m Chicago ORD 14:00 → DCA 17:12UA 1314 8h 34m 100% 73%
UnitedDetails → RSW 14:08 → ORD 16:13UA 2472 3h 32m Chicago ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160 8h 46m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → RSW 08:30 → ATL 10:16DL 1395 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360 6h 26m 99% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RSW 14:22 → DFW 16:25AA 2740 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:15 → DCA 21:31AA 472 7h 09m 69% 45%
AmericanDetails → RSW 11:55 → ORD 14:09AA 2437 46m Chicago ORD 14:55 → DCA 17:59AA 2769 6h 04m 67% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON