Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1378 at 07:56 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 1378 RSW 07:56 → DEN 09:57 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 879 RSW 14:33 → DEN 16:48 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1378 United	RSW 07:56	DEN 09:57	7%	2%	6.7%	no record
UA 778 United	RSW 16:04	DEN 18:09	17%	5%	4.4%	no record
WN 879 Southwest	RSW 14:33	DEN 16:48	20%	4%	4.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	RSW 06:00 → ATL 07:44DL 1385	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 08:44 → DEN 09:53DL 346	5h 53m	92%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON