Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2053 at 06:44 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 2053 RSW 06:44 → EWR 09:43 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1792 RSW 16:30 → EWR 19:19 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2053 United	RSW 06:44	EWR 09:43	6%	2%	6.9%	no record
UA 2477 United Flight history →	RSW 08:53	EWR 11:53	7%	4%	7.0%	68%
UA 1926 United	RSW 12:02	EWR 15:03	21%	10%	7.9%	no record
UA 1792 United	RSW 16:30	EWR 19:19	34%	15%	4.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON