Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 2054 at 11:59, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2054 United Flight history →	RSW 11:59	IAD 14:30	9%	4%	11.4%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RSW 07:15 → ATL 09:00DL 1361	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAD 14:26DL 2135	7h 11m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	RSW 14:32 → MSP 17:04DL 2400	2h 46m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest	8h 48m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	RSW 14:46 → ATL 16:38DL 1153	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 18:31 → IAD 20:23DL 1309	5h 37m	97%	76%
United Details →	RSW 08:38 → ORD 10:48UA 2347	2h 17m Chicago	ORD 13:05 → IAD 16:07UA 1128	7h 29m	100%	76%
American Details →	RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281	2h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:17 → IAD 14:26AA 524	8h 25m	98%	74%
United Details →	RSW 08:53 → EWR 11:53UA 2477	1h 10m Newark	EWR 13:03 → IAD 14:32UA 3906	5h 39m	94%	72%
Delta Details →	RSW 10:52 → ATL 12:35DL 1089	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 15:26 → IAD 17:14DL 1695	6h 22m	98%	71%
American Details →	RSW 16:10 → CLT 18:13AA 2018	3h 02m Charlotte	CLT 21:15 → IAD 22:42AA 2608	6h 32m	95%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON