tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2606 United RSW 06:53 IAH 08:38 7% 4% 4.5% no record
UA 1743 United RSW 14:01 IAH 15:52 13% 6% 3.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Fort Myers). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 14:46 → ATL 16:38DL 1153 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 18:53 → IAH 20:04DL 2327 6h 18m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → RSW 14:32 → MSP 17:04DL 2400 1h 36m Minneapolis MSP 18:40 → IAH 21:35DL 2683 8h 03m 93% 75%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281 2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:22 → IAH 11:39AA 3829 · flown by Envoy 6h 38m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → RSW 07:15 → ATL 09:00DL 1361 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 7h 18m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → RSW 11:59 → IAD 14:30UA 2054 3h 29m Dulles IAD 17:59 → IAH 20:25UA 2217 9h 26m 100% 71%
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:00 → ATL 07:44DL 1385 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 10:02 → IAH 11:11DL 1682 6h 11m 94% 71%
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:53 → EWR 11:53UA 2477 2h 08m Newark EWR 14:01 → IAH 16:54UA 1830 9h 01m 97% 69%
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:38 → ORD 10:48UA 2347 1h 52m Chicago ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:39UA 1448 8h 01m 96% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON