Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2320 Delta Flight history →	RSW 11:49	JFK 14:47	18%	6%	7.0%	78%
B6 1530 JetBlue Flight history →	RSW 16:55	JFK 19:51	27%	12%	4.4%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RSW 14:46 → ATL 16:38DL 1153	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2378	6h 43m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	RSW 06:00 → ATL 07:44DL 1385	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380	7h 20m	96%	74%
Delta Details →	RSW 14:32 → MSP 17:04DL 2400	3h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 20:21 → JFK 23:52DL 2692	9h 20m	96%	74%
American Details →	RSW 11:47 → DCA 14:34AA 2916	3h 54m Washington	DCA 18:28 → JFK 20:03AA 4629 · flown by Republic	8h 16m	98%	71%
Delta Details →	RSW 10:52 → ATL 12:35DL 1089	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 15:27 → JFK 17:56DL 1575	7h 04m	98%	67%
American Details →	RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281	1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:50 → JFK 14:34AA 1766	8h 33m	96%	66%
American Details →	RSW 16:10 → CLT 18:13AA 2018	2h 41m Charlotte	CLT 20:54 → JFK 23:00AA 1727	6h 50m	94%	64%
JetBlue Details →	RSW 11:02 → BOS 14:19B6 266	2h 24m Boston	BOS 16:43 → JFK 18:03B6 317	7h 01m	94%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON