Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4916 at 06:28 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 4916 RSW 06:28 → MCO 07:24 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 9010 RSW 16:16 → MCO 17:19 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4916 Southwest	RSW 06:28	MCO 07:24	6%	2%	10.0%	no record
WN 245 Southwest	RSW 18:13	MCO 19:16	15%	6%	5.9%	no record
B6 9010 JetBlue	RSW 16:16	MCO 17:19	28%	13%	8.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON