tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2219 Delta Flight history → RSW 18:15 MSP 21:00 13% 6% 4.1% 93%
DL 2400 Delta Flight history → RSW 14:32 MSP 17:04 14% 5% 5.4% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Fort Myers). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 07:15 → ATL 09:00DL 1361 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901 7h 35m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:00 → ATL 07:44DL 1385 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:31DL 2090 6h 31m 94% 78%
DeltaDetails → RSW 14:46 → ATL 16:38DL 1153 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 19:06 → MSP 20:46DL 2654 7h 00m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → RSW 11:49 → JFK 14:47DL 2320 3h 28m New York JFK 18:15 → MSP 20:24DL 2245 9h 35m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:52 → ATL 12:35DL 1089 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:07DL 2825 6h 15m 96% 73%
UnitedDetails → RSW 14:08 → ORD 16:13UA 2472 3h 44m Chicago ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005 8h 33m 98% 70%
AmericanDetails → RSW 08:53 → CLT 10:54AA 2241 1h 43m Charlotte CLT 12:37 → MSP 14:23AA 1671 6h 30m 90% 70%
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:53 → EWR 11:53UA 2477 2h 21m Newark EWR 14:14 → MSP 16:09UA 424 8h 16m 98% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → RSW 14:23 → LGA 17:17DL 379 48m New York LGA 18:05 → MSP 20:44DL 2313 7h 21m 70% 58%
AmericanDetails → RSW 19:11 → ORD 21:38AA 2561 48m Chicago ORD 22:26 → MSP 23:57AA 1048 5h 46m 63% 40%
AmericanDetails → RSW 18:20 → DFW 20:29AA 2736 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:30 → MSP 23:57AA 3149 6h 37m 74% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON