Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2347 at 08:38 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 2347 RSW 08:38 → ORD 10:48 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2437 RSW 11:55 → ORD 14:09 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2347 United Flight history →	RSW 08:38	ORD 10:48	8%	4%	8.9%	94%
AA 2613 American Flight history →	RSW 06:01	ORD 08:23	9%	3%	9.4%	93%
UA 2494 United Flight history →	RSW 12:28	ORD 14:53	16%	8%	11.5%	89%
UA 2472 United Flight history →	RSW 14:08	ORD 16:13	22%	8%	4.9%	77%
UA 1495 United	RSW 16:29	ORD 18:39	24%	7%	4.5%	no record
AA 2561 American Flight history →	RSW 19:11	ORD 21:38	28%	7%	5.0%	61%
AA 2437 American Flight history →	RSW 11:55	ORD 14:09	29%	8%	12.3%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON