tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 2987 at 17:33, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2987 Southwest RSW 17:33 PIT 20:10 21% 7% 4.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 14:32 → MSP 17:04DL 2400 2h 46m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → PIT 22:55DL 1134 8h 23m 94% 80%
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:00 → ATL 07:44DL 1385 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345 6h 52m 96% 79%
AmericanDetails → RSW 11:47 → DCA 14:34AA 2916 2h 16m Washington DCA 16:50 → PIT 18:11AA 4446 · flown by Republic 6h 24m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → RSW 14:46 → ATL 16:38DL 1153 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 19:49 → PIT 21:35DL 2583 6h 49m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281 2h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:40 → PIT 14:36AA 2664 8h 35m 99% 74%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:01 → ORD 08:23AA 2613 1h 31m Chicago ORD 09:54 → PIT 12:42AA 4467 · flown by Republic 6h 41m 91% 74%
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:38 → ORD 10:48UA 2347 3h 37m Chicago ORD 14:25 → PIT 17:10UA 1349 8h 32m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:52 → ATL 12:35DL 1089 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → PIT 17:08DL 1568 6h 16m 98% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON