tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 262 Southwest RSW 05:49 STL 07:36 3% 1% 4.6% no record
WN 3619 Southwest RSW 10:38 STL 12:30 9% 3% 9.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Fort Myers). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 14:32 → MSP 17:04DL 2400 3h 26m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → STL 22:03DL 1609 8h 31m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → RSW 07:15 → ATL 09:00DL 1361 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 11:52 → STL 12:30DL 566 6h 15m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → RSW 08:30 → ATL 10:16DL 1395 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 13:49 → STL 14:27DL 2700 6h 57m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → RSW 14:46 → ATL 16:38DL 1153 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 19:54 → STL 20:37DL 2833 6h 51m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:38 → ORD 10:48UA 2347 3h 32m Chicago ORD 14:20 → STL 15:46UA 2000 8h 08m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:52 → ATL 12:35DL 1089 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 15:52 → STL 16:39DL 543 6h 47m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → RSW 14:08 → ORD 16:13UA 2472 3h 55m Chicago ORD 20:08 → STL 21:27UA 1625 8h 19m 99% 72%
AmericanDetails → RSW 08:53 → CLT 10:54AA 2241 1h 19m Charlotte CLT 12:13 → STL 13:10AA 3096 5h 17m 90% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RSW 14:22 → DFW 16:25AA 2740 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:20 → STL 19:15AA 2487 5h 53m 73% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON