tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4865 at 10:22 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4865 Southwest SAN 10:22 ABQ 13:20 12% 3% 0.7% no record
AS 396 Alaska SAN 11:27 ABQ 14:21 23% 4% 1.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177 2h 54m Salt Lake City SLC 15:44 → ABQ 17:33DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest 6h 47m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → SAN 16:07 → DEN 19:39UA 682 1h 23m Denver DEN 21:02 → ABQ 22:30UA 5880 · flown by SkyWest 5h 23m 90% 81%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476 1h 13m Denver DEN 13:30 → ABQ 14:57UA 1594 5h 12m 92% 77%
DeltaDetails → SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210 56m Salt Lake City SLC 20:55 → ABQ 22:40DL 3729 · flown by SkyWest 4h 39m 82% 77%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35AA 2535 1h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:06 → ABQ 13:56AA 3777 · flown by Envoy 6h 36m 95% 76%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565 3h 09m Denver DEN 19:15 → ABQ 20:39UA 484 7h 06m 97% 71%
UnitedDetails → SAN 13:39 → SFO 15:19UA 1763 1h 22m San Francisco SFO 16:41 → ABQ 20:05UA 5289 · flown by SkyWest 5h 26m 83% 66%
AmericanDetails → SAN 07:15 → DFW 12:30AA 373 1h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:27 → ABQ 15:22AA 3053 7h 07m 95% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SAN 16:22 → PHX 17:52AA 1951 53m Phoenix PHX 18:45 → ABQ 21:06AA 3239 3h 44m 68% 49%
AmericanDetails → SAN 11:22 → DFW 16:34AA 2034 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:31 → ABQ 18:25AA 2698 6h 03m 72% 41%
AmericanDetails → SAN 15:12 → DFW 20:30AA 3060 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:24 → ABQ 22:23AA 1321 6h 11m 64% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON