Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 13–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 729 SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 843 SAN 13:02 → ATL 20:15 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 729 Delta Flight history →	SAN 06:15	ATL 13:49	13%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 680 Delta Flight history →	SAN 22:21	ATL 05:38	13%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 1179 Delta Flight history →	SAN 08:00	ATL 15:33	17%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 725 Delta Flight history →	SAN 10:36	ATL 18:11	17%	4%	1.3%	87%
DL 540 Delta Flight history →	SAN 14:18	ATL 22:00	18%	7%	1.1%	83%
DL 843 Delta	SAN 13:02	ATL 20:15	23%	6%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON