Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2024 at 08:02 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 2024 SAN 08:02 → AUS 12:59 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3464 SAN 11:02 → AUS 16:01 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2024 Southwest	SAN 08:02	AUS 12:59	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4486 Southwest	SAN 10:17	AUS 15:14	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 3292 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 17:48	AUS 23:00	20%	8%	1.0%	81%
OO 3489 SkyWest	SAN 08:22	AUS 13:21	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
AS 3300 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 14:31	AUS 19:30	24%	9%	0.9%	85%
WN 4278 Southwest	SAN 15:12	AUS 20:09	25%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 4323 Southwest	SAN 18:02	AUS 22:59	25%	9%	0.7%	no record
OO 3464 SkyWest	SAN 11:02	AUS 16:01	27%	8%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON