Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 571 at 22:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 571 SAN 22:00 → BOS 06:38 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest B6 220 SAN 13:46 → BOS 22:30 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 571 Delta Flight history →	SAN 22:00	BOS 06:38	10%	3%	0.7%	85%
AS 255 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 20:52	BOS 05:40	14%	3%	0.8%	85%
B6 2120 JetBlue Flight history →	SAN 20:40	BOS 05:19	16%	7%	1.3%	83%
B6 220 JetBlue Flight history →	SAN 13:46	BOS 22:30	24%	11%	1.0%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134	1h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 13:27 → BOS 17:24DL 2558	8h 04m	98%	83%
United Details →	SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476	1h 49m Denver	DEN 14:06 → BOS 20:10UA 597	8h 25m	94%	75%
United Details →	SAN 12:57 → IAD 21:05UA 444	1h 05m Dulles	IAD 22:10 → BOS 23:59UA 755	8h 02m	85%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON