tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3632 Southwest SAN 00:05 BWI 08:08 6% 1% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:04UA 2830 1h 29m San Francisco SFO 09:33 → BWI 17:57UA 2664 8h 37m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121 2h 05m Minneapolis MSP 19:45 → BWI 23:13DL 2918 8h 25m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754 1h 21m Detroit DTW 15:09 → BWI 16:45DL 2480 7h 30m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → BWI 17:45DL 1267 8h 30m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476 1h 52m Denver DEN 14:09 → BWI 19:30UA 363 7h 45m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:33DL 1179 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 17:50 → BWI 19:45DL 2928 8h 45m 95% 78%
AmericanDetails → SAN 10:11 → ORD 16:31AA 2343 1h 57m Chicago ORD 18:28 → BWI 21:40AA 4663 · flown by Republic 8h 29m 93% 76%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:11 → IAH 15:39UA 1980 2h 48m Houston IAH 18:27 → BWI 22:41UA 1830 9h 30m 93% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:37 → DTW 19:10DL 492 46m Detroit DTW 19:56 → BWI 21:36DL 2715 6h 59m 65% 57%
AmericanDetails → SAN 11:22 → DFW 16:34AA 2034 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:20 → BWI 21:38AA 2251 7h 16m 65% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON