tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 3081 at 08:20, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3081 SkyWest SAN 08:20 BZN 11:55 18% 4% 1.0% no record
AS 2221 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SAN 11:38 BZN 15:24 42% 10% 1.9% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177 3h 01m Salt Lake City SLC 15:51 → BZN 17:14DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 6h 28m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:20DL 1117 1h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BZN 12:05DL 1971 4h 50m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565 3h 19m Denver DEN 19:25 → BZN 21:14UA 1347 7h 41m 97% 81%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 06:50 → PDX 09:29AS 399 1h 01m Portland PDX 10:30 → BZN 13:10AS 2022 · flown by Horizon 5h 20m 90% 80%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476 1h 13m Denver DEN 13:30 → BZN 15:18UA 513 5h 33m 92% 79%
DeltaDetails → SAN 07:03 → SEA 10:05DL 2530 1h 45m Seattle SEA 11:50 → BZN 14:45DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest 6h 42m 91% 76%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:04UA 2830 3h 56m San Francisco SFO 12:00 → BZN 15:21UA 562 8h 01m 100% 76%
AmericanDetails → SAN 07:15 → DFW 12:30AA 373 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:21 → BZN 15:35AA 947 7h 20m 75% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210 46m Salt Lake City SLC 20:45 → BZN 22:03DL 2046 4h 02m 72% 63%
DeltaDetails → SAN 16:11 → SEA 19:05DL 2572 54m Seattle SEA 19:59 → BZN 22:49DL 4039 · flown by SkyWest 5h 38m 70% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON