Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 10:36, is the safest bet: 50% chance of reaching Charlotte on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2130 American	SAN 22:14	CLT 05:51	12%	3%	1.2%	no record
AA 1651 American Flight history →	SAN 06:50	CLT 14:49	14%	3%	0.8%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121	2h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929	8h 56m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 14:54 → CLT 16:48DL 1429	7h 33m	93%	76%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:20DL 1117	1h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:30 → CLT 16:27DL 2070	7h 12m	95%	76%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 17:05 → CLT 18:24DL 3158	9h 09m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:33DL 1179	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 18:59 → CLT 20:07DL 2132	9h 07m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134	51m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → CLT 16:27DL 2819	7h 07m	87%	73%
United Details →	SAN 12:57 → IAD 21:05UA 444	1h 16m Dulles	IAD 22:21 → CLT 23:59UA 2074	8h 02m	88%	72%
American Details →	SAN 06:19 → PHL 14:31AA 2093	1h 34m Philadelphia	PHL 16:05 → CLT 17:41AA 3012	8h 22m	100%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725	48m Atlanta	ATL 18:59 → CLT 20:07DL 2132	6h 31m	66%	50%
American Details →	SAN 09:50 → DFW 15:10AA 2687	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:01 → CLT 19:42AA 2013	6h 52m	72%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON