tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 11:48, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Columbus on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121 2h 35m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → CMH 23:07DL 1356 8h 19m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:19 → PHL 14:31AA 2093 1h 13m Philadelphia PHL 15:44 → CMH 17:32AA 2592 8h 13m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 21:55 → CMH 23:33DL 1459 9h 57m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:35 → ORD 16:52UA 1710 2h 53m Chicago ORD 19:45 → CMH 22:24UA 3614 · flown by Republic 8h 49m 94% 80%
DeltaDetails → SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:33DL 1179 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 17:50 → CMH 19:27DL 2786 8h 27m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177 2h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 15:30 → CMH 20:58DL 2230 8h 12m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → SAN 10:11 → ORD 16:31AA 2343 2h 59m Chicago ORD 19:30 → CMH 22:04AA 3447 · flown by Envoy 8h 53m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:57 → IAD 21:05UA 444 1h 16m Dulles IAD 22:21 → CMH 23:49UA 3646 · flown by Republic 7h 52m 88% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON